Sunday, December 13, 2015

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA)


13 December 2015 from AccuWeather:

Satellite image of Melor as it strengthened Saturday. (Image/NOAA).

Melor is expected to make landfall in the central Philippines Monday night or Tuesday.

Wind gusts at landfall could reach 185 km/h (115 mph), with the highest gusts confined to areas right along the coast.

While Melor's ultimate track will dictate the system's impact on the nation of around 100 million people, current indications are that it could make landfall near or over southern Luzon, the country's largest and most populous island, early next week.

After landfall, the storm may slow down as it tracks westward across the Philippines. This slower movement could prolong heavy rain in some areas.

Rainfall amounts could top 300 mm (12 inches) in some areas, especially across the higher terrain. How much rain falls will be partially determined by how fast the storm moves across the Philippines.

Also potentially in the crosshairs is Manila, the capital of the Philippines. While wind from the storm should not be nearly as strong as where it makes landfall in southern Luzon, heavy rainfall will be a possibility.

On the other hand, if the storm takes a track a bit farther to the south, the heavy rain and gusty winds would remain south of Manila.

"While the system will be strong upon reaching the Philippines, it certainly won't be the strongest system that has hit the area this year," Duffey said.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6  from PAGASA AT 6:00 PM 13 December 2015

 Movement and Intensification 10-13 Dec 2015

Weather Advisory: Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor (as tracked by Boracaystories.com)

Typhoon Nonoy, 10 December 2015


The PAGASA is monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) that may move into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by the weekend.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) weather forecasters said the LPA is still outside the PAR and was spotted some 2,275 kilometers east of Mindanao. There is high likelihood it will enter the PAR by Friday or Saturday.

Since it is still over the ocean, there is a high chance for it to intensify into a tropical cyclone. When it enters the PAR, it will then be called Typhoon Nonoy, the 14th tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines in 2015. That's a low number, by the way, considering the country gets 20 or so, on average, per year.

At this time of the year, most of the tropical cyclones pass over Visayas and Mindanao because of the presence of the northeast monsoon in Luzon, which influences the movement of the tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Nonoy
As at 10:00 AM, Friday, 11 December 2015

According to PAGASA:

"At 10:00 am today, the center of a Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was estimated based on all available data at 1440 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.7°N, 139.4°E) with maximum winds of 55 kph near the center. It is forecast to move west northwest at 20 kph."

So it is still a ways off ... but it's coming.

The depression could still intensify into a tropical cyclone while it remains in open ocean over the Pacific. Its trajectory may lead to landfall over Bicol or the Eastern Visayas region.

Despite the approaching typhoon, Boracay had a wonderful sunset earlier (11 December 2015).


Typhoon Nonoy / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 5:00 PM, Friday, 11 December 2015

The tropical depression just outside the PAR has now intensified enough to become a tropical cyclone. Its international name is now Tropical Cyclone Melor, and when it enters the PAR, it will be known locally as Typhoon Nonoy.

Melor's last estimated position was at 1,240 kilometers East of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur.

It was packing maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph, and moving west northwest at 25 kph. It could intensify some more as it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

It is now estimated to enter PAR on Saturday, and possibly make landfall over Eastern Visayas or the Bicol Region.

A little bit of history:

When Typhoon Nonoy officially becomes a named typhoon, it will be the first time ever in Philippine history that the country shall have had named typhoons for all the twelve months of 2015, from January to December. Yes, the first time ever!

Only once before -- in the 1960s -- did we have named typhoons for eleven months, from January to November.

This tidbit of history comes from Western Pacific Weather.


Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 10:00 AM, Saturday, 12 December 2015

Tropical Cyclone Melor has entered the PAR and is now officially named ... Typhoon Nona! A sudden name/sex change!

Typhoon Nona was last monitored at 1,025 km East of Maasin City, Southern Leyte. It has maintained wind strength, at maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

However, its forward velocity has slowed down from 25 kph to 17 kph, moving West Northwest.

Here's how PAGASA's tracking sees it:


Forecast Positions:

By Sunday morning, 13 December -- 605 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar

By Monday morning, 14 December -- 350 km East of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon


By Tuesday morning, 15 December -- In the vicinity of Virac, Catanduanes


By Wednesday morning, 16 December -- 55 km Northeast of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro


By Thursday morning, 17 December -- 195 km West of Calapan City


So Boracay may get some rains around Tuesday or Wednesday, in time for the Misa de Gallo.

Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor

It's 8:30 PM (12 December), but there's been no update from PAGASA on Typhoon Nona (the former Nonoy). So what happened? Why did they suddenly change the typhoon's name from Nonoy to Nona?

According to PAGASA staff, the original name was really meant to be, because Nonoy is included in PAGASA’s official list of names for tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Indeed, three typhoon advisories had already been issued for Typhoon Nonoy.

But just as the typhoon entered PAR, PAGASA "higher-ups" reportedly decided to change its name to Nona, because Nonoy sound too much like the nickname of the current president, Noynoy Aquino. 

Sounds reasonable, yes? We don't want our president to be associated with a typhoon.

It has been done before. Really? Yes, because the official typhoon name would sound too much like a president's name!

In 2006, PAGASA was about to designate a tropical cyclone, according to its official list of names, Typhoon Gloria. In fact, Gloria had been used in 2002.

But there was no having it a second time. Not when the president at the time was already four years plus in power! So PAGASA "retired" the name Gloria and used Typhoon Glenda instead.

By the way, PAGASA "retires" a name when the typhoon linked to it has caused at least 300 deaths or P1-billion worth of damage in crops and infrastructure.

Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 10:00 PM, Saturday, 12 December 2015

Typhoon Nona gained some strength as it moves closer to the Philippine landmass. It now packs maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center with gustiness of up to 100 kph.

Its last location is estimated to be 665 kilometers East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. It is still moving West Northwest at 19 kph. At this rate, it is expected to make landfall around late Tuesday or early Wednesday, probably in the Bicol region.

Forecast Positions:
By Sunday evening, 13 December -- 495 km East of Legazpi City, Albay

By Monday evening, 14 December -- 60 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes


By Tuesday evening, 15 December -- In the vicinity of Lucena City, Quezon


By Wednesday evening, 16 December -- 235 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro


By Thursday evening, 17 December -- 495 km West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro


No Public Storm Warning signal has been raised yet, but Signal No 1 could be raised over Bicol region and the Samar provinces Sunday morning.

There's no storm signal raised in Aklan and Boracay yet. But it's already overcast in Boracay. No sunset for today.


Authorities have likened Nona's expected rainfall to those of typhoon "Monang" and tropical storm "Seniang."

Seniang dumped rains of 15 millimeters (0.6 inches) of rain per hour over Mindanao last December 2014.



Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 10:00 AM, Sunday, 13 December 2015

Typhoon Nona has continued to gain strength as it approaches the Samar-Bicol area. It is now packing maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 140 kph.

At this time, the typhoon's center was located at 565 km East of Catarman, Samar. It was moving West Northwest at 19 kph.

Public Storm Warning Signal No. 1 has been raised over 
Luzon -- Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands 

Visayas -- Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte and Southern Leyte


Mindanao -- Dinagat Province


Here's a look at PAGASA's tracking forecast:



Going by the projected path and the 300-km diameter influence zone, the effects of the typhoon on Aklan will be most felt around 15 December 2015.

But it will make landfall first in Samar-Bicol, on Monday. And probably bring heavy rains.

In preparation for that, the governor of Albay Province has ordered the suspension of classes in all levels. The Albay Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) has begun preparations to address any emergencies that may arise.

According to DILG CODIX's Facebook account, these are the affected areas of typhoon Nona.


The alert level for Aklan is within "400 Diameter from the forecast track".




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