Friday, December 23, 2016

Strengthening NinaPH/Nock-ten to threaten lives, property in Philippines on Christmas

Typhoon will blast westward over far southern Luzon and northern Mindoro and will threaten lives and property on Christmas Day. Based on data, the typhoon will simply not just jump over Marinduque Island and leave it untouched.


Nock-ten will strengthen into a significant typhoon prior to threatening lives and property across the central Philippines on Christmas Day.
The environment is prime for Nock-ten, locally known as Nina, to strengthen rapidly into a significant typhoon during the next couple of days as it churns westward through the Philippine Sea.
By the time it reaches the Philippines, the strength of Nock-ten should be equal to that of a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans. It is even possible that Nock-ten ramps up Category 4 hurricane intensity.
Wind, rain and seas will increase around Nock-ten as it intensifies, creating dangerous conditions for shipping interests.

For residents of the central Philippines, the days leading up to Christmas will have to be spent making necessary preparations for the future typhoon’s arrival instead of holiday festivities.
Residents should heed any evacuation orders.
The projected track of Nock-ten sends it into the Bicol region on Saturday night with destructive winds and flooding rainfall.
The typhoon should continue to blast westward over far southern Luzon Island and northern Mindoro Island into Sunday night. While land interaction will cause some weakening, damaging winds and torrential rain will continue along Nock-ten’s path.

'Extreme' risk for Marinduque in this AccuWeather map.
Widespread flooding will result as Nock-ten unleashes 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain along its path. Most of that rain will pour down in six to 12 hours, quickly inundating communities and rising streams and rivers out of their banks. Mudslides could also be triggered.
Wind gusts in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph) will lead to major damage to well-built homes, as well as widespread tree damage. Residents, including those in Naga and Legazpi, should prepare for power outages that can last for days to even weeks in the wake of the typhoon.
“Any good news for the region would be that Nock-ten will be a very small storm with typhoon-force winds only about 80-120 km (50-75 miles) in diameter as it enters the Philippines,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
A life-threatening inundating storm surge will occur near and north of where Nock-ten makes its initial landfall, including in Lamon and Lopez bays.
Current indications keep the typhoon and the worst of its impacts south of Manila on Sunday night. However, the capital may still face wind gusts of 65-96 km/h (40-60 mph) and locally flooding rainfall of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches).
Residents are urged to closely monitor the track of Nock-ten. Any shift northward would bring more severe impacts to Manila.
Similar rainfall totals with localized higher amounts and flooding problems will also target northeastern Luzon Island.
Beyond the Philippines, Nock-ten should encounter a more hostile environment and weaken over the South China Sea by midweek.
“With that said, interests in Vietnam will want to monitor the system as there is still the possibility it reaches the country,” Douty said. “Even if it fails to reach the Vietnamese coast, it may still bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the country.”

- Source: AccuWeather
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Meanwhile, PAGASA issued the following 'Severe Weather Bulletin No. 2" at 11:00 AM Dec. 23, 2016

WeatherPhilippines Storm Track #001:




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