Monday, August 7, 2017

3 Intl agencies di magkasundo sa lokasyon, lakas at lalim ng lindol sa Pilipinas?

Di naman talaga bago yun. Ilang blog na rin ang naipost ko tungkol sa hindi pagkakatugma ng mga siyentipikong ahensya tungkol sa pagtatala nila ng mga lindol. 

Medyo kakaiba nga lang ang isang ito, dahil tila pati sa pinangyarihan ng lindol ay hindi pare-pareho ang record nila nang pumasok na ang media.


Fig. 1: "The USGS said the quake was 46.2 miles (74 km) deep but European quake agency EMSC put it at only 6.2 miles (10 km deep, which would increase its impact."

Noong nakaraan, di bababa sa dalawang beses na naipakita ko ang kamalian (o kapabayaan) ng Phivolcs sa pagsabing walang magiging pagkasira (damage) na inaasahan matapos ang isang malakas na lindol, at sa isa naman ay walang inaasahang aftershocks daw na magaganap. Mali sila on both points.

Ngayon naman, sa M 5.9 lindol na naganap bandang General Santos City noong Aug. 5, 2017, ganito ang naging report ng mga pangunahing ahensya sa mundo:

Sa Phivolcs: M5.9; Sa USGS: M5.8; Sa EMSC: M5.8
Depth: Phivolcs70 km; USGS: 73.3 km; EMSC 10 km (as reported by Reuters)

Sa ilang lumabas sa media na mapa ay lalo kang matataranta: Itinuturo ng Indian Express, halimbawa, base sa Reuters ang Zamboanga del Norte bilang pinangyarihan ng lindol sa halip na sa may General Santos City (Sarangani). Fig. 2.

Fig. 2: Map appearing in Indian Express with earthquake location
pointing to Zamboanga del Norte instead of Gen. Santos City
.
Mapapansin naman na ang dating depth na 10 km na ginamit ng EMSC ay naging 90 km na sa ngayon. Fig. 8.

Sa kabilang dako, hindi malimit na mangyari na sa loob ng isang araw ay may maganap na mga lindol mula M4.5 pataas mula Pilipinas hanggang Japan at mangyari ang mga lindol sa isang straight line mula Pilipinas hanggang Japan. Limang lindol ang naganap na M4.5 hanggang M5.9, tingnan sa Fig. 4.

Fig. 4: 5 earthquakes from M 4.5 upwards forming a straight line.
Ang ibig lamang sabihin nito: Huwag magpadalos-dalos sa pagpapaniwala sa mga balitang mapapanood, maririnig o mababasa natin. Kailangang ma-verify lahat. Masyadong magaling ang 'science' at media combined eh. 
Sa panglilihis kaya?


Fig. 3: Distance between General Santos City and Zambonga del Norte is ca 335 kms.


Fig.5: M5.0 in Bukidnon same day, Aug. 5, 2017.

Fig. 6: Phivolcs data on the M5.9 tremor.
Fig. 7: Location of M 5.9 based on Google Earth

In fine, here's the summary of what they said:

PHIVOLCS:
05 Aug 2017 - 08:30:40 AM
Location: 06.18°N, 125.32°E - 023 km N 09° E of Malapatan (Sarangani)
Depth of Focus (Km): 070
Magnitude : Ms 5.9

USGS:
Magnitude: Magnitude 5.8
2017-08-05 00:30:41 (UTC)
Location: 6.141°N 125.446°E
Depth: 73.3 km

EMSC:
Magnitude:  Mw 5.8
Region: MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Date time: 2017-08-05 00:30:42.3 UTC
Location 6.20 N ; 125.41 E
Depth: 90 km

Fig. 8: Data from EMSC. Depth now at 90 km

Susong Dalaga Hill

Susong Dalaga Hill
Susong Dalaga Hill from Bagtasan isthmus

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