Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Precursors sa parating na malaking lindol

The New Yorker magazine noong nakaraang taon ang unang naglabas ng report tungkol sa katiyakan na wawasakin ng isang matinding lindol ang coastal Northwest ng America. Naireport din ito sa Fox News.

Ang malaking tanong nga lamang ay 'kailan'?

Ito rin kasi ang napag-usapan sa isang international meeting ng seismologists noong Marso 2011 sa Kashiwa, Japan.

Sa loob ng maraming dekada, hindi naniwala ang mga seismologists na maaaring makaranas ang Japan ng lindol na mas malakas sa magnitude 8.4. 

Pero noong 2005, sa ganun ding conference, ipinaglaban ng isang seismologist na Hapon, si Yasutaka Ikeda na maaring maganap ang isang magnitude 9.0 na lindol sa hinaharap - isang lindol na catastrophic dahil ang kilalang kahandaan ng Japan sa earthquake at tsunami preparedness, kasama na ang taas na aabutin ng mga tsunami, ay binatay aniya sa maling siyensiya, 'incorrect science'. 

Hindi nga siya nagkamali dahil ang magnitude-9.0 lindol na naganap sa Tohoki ay kumitil ng higit 18,000 katao, sinira ang northeast Japan, naging sanhi ng meltdown sa Fukushima power plant at ang halaga ng mga sinira ay ay US220 billion dollars.

Naganap pa ang nasabing lindol habang may conference nga ang mga seismologists 200 miles away, sa Kashiwa.

Pero para kay Chris Goldfinger, isang paleoseismologist na naroon, at isa sa mga eksperto sa isang fault-line sa Amerika, ang nasabing lindol ay isang senyales lamang: isang preview para sa isang parating na malaking lindol. 


Imahe mula sa artikulo ng The New Yorker, 2015,
tungkol sa Cascadia subduction zone

Ang tinutukoy na fault-line ay ang Cascadia subduction zone na nasa 700 miles ang haba sa Pacific Northwest ng US,mula sa Cape Mendocino, California, hanggang sa Oregon at Washington, nagtatapos sa Vancouver Island, Canada.


Bumubuga ang lupa ng carbon monoxide (CO) ilang araw bago
dumating ang isang lindol ayon kay Ramesh Singh, geophysicist

May babala sa maaaring maganap sa na M-9.2 lindol sa Cascadia subduction zone

Habang sinusulat ito ay abala ang ilang mga seryosong mananaliksik tungkol sa kasalukuyang nagaganap sa nasabing Cascadia subduction zone. May mga kakaibang sumisingaw galing sa ilalim ng lupa na carbon monoxide (CO) gas. 

Sa loob ng nakaraang 5 araw ay kumalat na ang gas dala ng ulap sa West coast papunta sa mga bundok ng West/Midwest US.


February 28, 2016. Carbon monoxide emission sa Cascadia subduction zone

Sabi ni Michael Janitch, hindi ito 'chance'. Magma lamang ang may kapasidad na maging dahilan ng ganito kalaking gas release. Magkahalong seismic pressure at large plate movement lamang ang makakagawa nito sa napakalawak na lugar sa loob ng maikling panahon, aniya.

Makakabuti raw na tulad ng matagal nang babala ng mga scientist, makagawa rin ng pansariling kahandaan ang mga kinauukulan para sa kanilang kaligtasan.

Baka isang araw ay marinig na nga lamang natin iyung sinasabi nilang "cacophony of barking dogs" dahil ang mga aso raw ay higit na nakakaramdam ng pagdating ng malakas na lindol tulad nito.


February 28, 2016. CO emission sa South China

Kasabay naman ng nagaganap na carbon monoxide gas release sa Cascadia subduction zone ang gayun ding hindi pangkaraniwang nagaganap sa bahagi ng South China na malapit sa Pilipinas.

Related video:



UPDATE FROM NASA ABOUT THE CARBON MONOXIDE (CO) EMISSIONS DATA THEY HAVE RELEASED:

Erroneous CO emissions over California cause unrealistic CO concentration in GEOS-5 model

March 1, 2016

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Elevated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations over California in the GEOS-5 products since February 25, 2016, are incorrect. They are a consequence of unrealistic emissions derived from satellite observations of fires, which led to elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO (as well as other species).
NASA's EOS-Terra spacecraft entered safe mode on February 18, 2016, during an inclination adjustment maneuver. This caused the MODIS instrument to enter safe mode, with the nadir and space-view doors closed. When the Terra MODIS transitioned back to science mode on February 24, 2016, the operating temperatures for the SWIR and LWIR (Short-wave Infrared and Longwave infrared) focal planes have not yet stabilized. As a consequence, some data products have been severely degraded. This includes the "Fire Radiative Power" fields that are used by GEOS-5 to compute emissions of CO, CO2, and carbonaceous aerosols by biomass burning.
GMAO is working to correct this problem. The GEOS-5 analyses will be re-run from February 24, 2016, using only the EOS-Aqua MODIS data, in order to exclude the unrealistic CO emissions. EOS-Terra observations will be re-introduced once the instrument has stabilized. 

Fires, really? When?


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