Next update: Sunday Afternoon, 25 December 2016
Current Status and Outlook Super Typhoon NOCK-TEN (NINA) has maintained its strength as it continues to move slowly closer to the eastern coasts of Bicol Region. Deteriorating weather conditions are expected today across Northern Samar and Bicol Region.
This super typhoon is expected to continue moving in a generally westerly track within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr, and shall consequently weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Bicol Region and due to the entrainment of cold and dry air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).
*Residents are advised to take full precautionary measures as Nock-ten (Nina) is forecast to make its first landfall over the island province of Catanduanes tonight.
Where is “NOCK-TEN” (NINA)? As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 25…2100 GMT. The eye was located over the mid-western part of Central Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 126.3E), about 226 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 282 km east of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph
Where is it heading? It was moving West @ 13 kph, towards Catanduanes and Camarines Sur.
Potential Landfall Area(s): Over Catanduanes on the evening of Christmas Day, Dec 25th between 5-7pm, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%; and over Eastern Camarines Sur or Eastern Albay Area between 9-11pm Dec 25th, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
: Bicol Region, Southern Quezon and Northern Samar – beginning Sunday morning, Christmas Day (Dec 25) through Monday morning (Dec 26).
+Large and dangerous batttering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded from Super Typhoon (Category 4) to a Category 3 Typhoon as it traverses the central part of Bicol…about 21 km west of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2AM DEC 26: 13.6N 123.0E @ 170kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Southern Tagalog Provinces…just a Tropical Storm (TS), about 284 km west of Metro Manila [2AM DEC 27: 14.9N 118.4E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it is about to leave the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and begins to bend southwestward…about 541 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [2AM DEC 28: 14.6N 115.3E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. - Source: WeatherPH